The National Retail Federation (NRF) forecasts that U.S. retail sales in November and December 2026 will increase 4.2% year over year to $1.013 trillion, according to its holiday sales outlook released on October 15. Holiday sales in 2025 rose 3.1% from 2024 to $972 billion.

“This year’s forecast reflects our confidence that consumers will prioritize the holiday season even as they remain mindful of their budgets,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay.

NRF Chief Economist and Executive Director of Research Mark Mathews said consumers were entering the holiday season with strong spending momentum. However, inflation, rising gasoline prices and pressure on household spending would affect consumers differently across income groups.

NRF expects retailers to hire between 325,000 and 375,000 seasonal workers for the 2026 holiday season, compared with an estimated 356,000 seasonal jobs in 2025. Retailers remain cautious about seasonal hiring amid higher gasoline prices, persistent inflation, elevated interest rates and high consumer debt.

The forecast is based on economic modeling that incorporates consumer spending, disposable personal income, employment, wages, inflation and previously released monthly retail sales data. NRF defines the holiday season as November 1 through December 31. Its retail sales calculations exclude automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants to focus on core retail sales.

The projected 4.2% increase is measured in nominal terms and is not adjusted for inflation.

Image: National Retail Federation